Well the republicans better start a major TikTok campaign about her past as an Attorney General and United States Senator. The Dems are better at social media than the Republicans. They have approximately 100 days to make a difference. Let's see if they can pull this off.
PS I agree the poll are off. I truly never believe them but I am always interested in the numbers.
Generally the Dems are much better at campaigning because they run on Feelings and Emotions, not Logic and Policy. The average suburban woman couldn't fill a shot glass with her knowledge of Foreign Policy, Economics or the Constitution. But she'll quote Trump's pussy grabbing line verbatim in 6 different languages, turning redder than Alabama, as to why she's voting for someone that will make all her costs of living (+ taxes) skyrocket. Critical Thinking is not in her vocabulary. The tragic part is the Harris-Obama administration will cost her a helluvalot more than the price of eggs, milk, and bread
I like looking at the numbers too, I usually check out the betting sites and Rasmussen daily and then match that up against anything else being reported.
Rasmussen is really interesting because for some of their polls, like the daily presidential, they track the same people over time, so you can see how their opinion shifts. Some of the dumbest news stories will make it shift too, which really shows how strange politics can be, I never can figure out the American public or why some of these stories would change anything, but they do and far more often than they should.
I get some of the poll shifting events, like the pullout from Afghanistan that wacked Biden's polls badly, but others are just strange, like a show trial finds a cop guilty and up go Biden's numbers. Why?? I've seen celebrity gossip change the polling, things like that boggle my mind. We could literally have an election decided because some pop singer changes her mind and endorses someone else or just falls from grace.
It would be enlightening to know the # or the assumed # of people polled who lie. I know some folks who do it as a hobby. Depending on the Weighting issue, a handful out of a 1208 sample would have a serious effect if the race is really that "tight". Added to that, the pollster I interviewed (podcast in the archives) mentioned the skewing caused by the # of calls and the person answering. An 18-year-old girl is more likely to answer the Home Phone than her 40-year-old mom or dad. And then there's the Home Phone problem: there aren't many any more and cell #s with demo info are not easy to come by...And yet, the results are posted as if they were Gospel.
In the past they tried to put some zingers in the questions to try and ferret out the liars, but I'm not sure they even bother anymore and even when they tried it was assumed some were lying, so they tended to throw out the extreme Tail ends of the result.
Lets say someone answers EXTREMELY SURE to every single question, they would be left out of the results with a good poll. These call centers don't do that or not as often because they are getting paid for Numbers not so much accuracy. That's why the candidates themselves refuse to use these call centers polls, who tend to call people who get PAID for filling out tons of different polls and surveys etc. If they see someone answered A to every question, that person should get tossed out but if you are a call center getting paid by the size of your poll your probably won't toss out all the scammers who are just filling the out for the money as fast as possible.
The cell phone situation vs land line is a major problem and they have not worked that one out at all yet, not that I know of anyway. Various groups try different methods to make up for it, but then they just add another layer of assumptions to the mix. They have to assume X amount of people are lying, they have to assume the cell phone vs home phone skews the results, etc., so they make even more assumptions which change their formulas.
The recent Venezuela presidential election saw Maduro win again. LOL! Data shows his opponent won around 70% of the vote. No matter. Maduro's gang counts the votes. The Venezuelans aren't happy about the result, but they are unarmed.
Voting is useless once the dictators take power. That is what we have in the USA.
Brian, When Peron was overthrown in a military coup, the ARA Belgrano (former USS Phoenix heavy cruiser sold to Argentina after WWII) sailed into port and threatened to blow up the place if Peron didn't step down. So guns do work if there is a will behind them to use the guns. Maduro better keep the military happy.
I think the Venezuelans would use guns if they had them. They have little to lose.
The British sank the ARA Belgrano in the Falklands War with much loss of life.
I read the book about the USS Phoenix/ARA Belgrano last year. It's a very good book.
So...if there is the Will, they will? (inventory assumed) Should the US offer them the USS Ala-damn-Bama at a Fire? sale price (+ refurbishing)? Much more impressive than re-cycled M-16s. And they don't have to sweat the Falklands anymore...
Brian, If the neocons who run the USA had any sense, they would give the Venezuelan free market/liberty rebels a task force on loan. The good will earned by the USA would give Exxon and Chevron all the oil they wanted.
But that plan didn't work out in Iraq, did it? Cheney and Bush had a heavy hand, a choke hold leash on Iraq.
I'm getting the sense that the neocons are morphing or homogenizing into a different identity with moderated goals TBA. Either way, not good news for the Freedom folks.
It certainly smells like the same playbook to me. Fix the polls enough to make it seem plausible, get busy stuffing the ballot boxes and do whatever you can to keep her from opening her mouth in public, while letting the media do the heavy lifting.
I wonder what, if anything, the RNC and/or Trump Campaign may be doing to forestall the funny business the Dems are certainly planning. Other than the Act Blue caper getting outted, I haven't seen much encouraging news...
I haven't heard of much either. Here in Michigan they made the ballot harvesting legal, vote from home for everyone, no ID's needed at the door, etc. If Dems don't continue to dominate Michigan I'll be surprised.
Well the republicans better start a major TikTok campaign about her past as an Attorney General and United States Senator. The Dems are better at social media than the Republicans. They have approximately 100 days to make a difference. Let's see if they can pull this off.
PS I agree the poll are off. I truly never believe them but I am always interested in the numbers.
Generally the Dems are much better at campaigning because they run on Feelings and Emotions, not Logic and Policy. The average suburban woman couldn't fill a shot glass with her knowledge of Foreign Policy, Economics or the Constitution. But she'll quote Trump's pussy grabbing line verbatim in 6 different languages, turning redder than Alabama, as to why she's voting for someone that will make all her costs of living (+ taxes) skyrocket. Critical Thinking is not in her vocabulary. The tragic part is the Harris-Obama administration will cost her a helluvalot more than the price of eggs, milk, and bread
I like looking at the numbers too, I usually check out the betting sites and Rasmussen daily and then match that up against anything else being reported.
Rasmussen is really interesting because for some of their polls, like the daily presidential, they track the same people over time, so you can see how their opinion shifts. Some of the dumbest news stories will make it shift too, which really shows how strange politics can be, I never can figure out the American public or why some of these stories would change anything, but they do and far more often than they should.
I get some of the poll shifting events, like the pullout from Afghanistan that wacked Biden's polls badly, but others are just strange, like a show trial finds a cop guilty and up go Biden's numbers. Why?? I've seen celebrity gossip change the polling, things like that boggle my mind. We could literally have an election decided because some pop singer changes her mind and endorses someone else or just falls from grace.
It would be enlightening to know the # or the assumed # of people polled who lie. I know some folks who do it as a hobby. Depending on the Weighting issue, a handful out of a 1208 sample would have a serious effect if the race is really that "tight". Added to that, the pollster I interviewed (podcast in the archives) mentioned the skewing caused by the # of calls and the person answering. An 18-year-old girl is more likely to answer the Home Phone than her 40-year-old mom or dad. And then there's the Home Phone problem: there aren't many any more and cell #s with demo info are not easy to come by...And yet, the results are posted as if they were Gospel.
In the past they tried to put some zingers in the questions to try and ferret out the liars, but I'm not sure they even bother anymore and even when they tried it was assumed some were lying, so they tended to throw out the extreme Tail ends of the result.
Lets say someone answers EXTREMELY SURE to every single question, they would be left out of the results with a good poll. These call centers don't do that or not as often because they are getting paid for Numbers not so much accuracy. That's why the candidates themselves refuse to use these call centers polls, who tend to call people who get PAID for filling out tons of different polls and surveys etc. If they see someone answered A to every question, that person should get tossed out but if you are a call center getting paid by the size of your poll your probably won't toss out all the scammers who are just filling the out for the money as fast as possible.
The cell phone situation vs land line is a major problem and they have not worked that one out at all yet, not that I know of anyway. Various groups try different methods to make up for it, but then they just add another layer of assumptions to the mix. They have to assume X amount of people are lying, they have to assume the cell phone vs home phone skews the results, etc., so they make even more assumptions which change their formulas.
You are so right!
The recent Venezuela presidential election saw Maduro win again. LOL! Data shows his opponent won around 70% of the vote. No matter. Maduro's gang counts the votes. The Venezuelans aren't happy about the result, but they are unarmed.
Voting is useless once the dictators take power. That is what we have in the USA.
Assuming the "losing" Venezuelans *were* armed, would they use them appropriately or be like Americans....?
Brian, When Peron was overthrown in a military coup, the ARA Belgrano (former USS Phoenix heavy cruiser sold to Argentina after WWII) sailed into port and threatened to blow up the place if Peron didn't step down. So guns do work if there is a will behind them to use the guns. Maduro better keep the military happy.
I think the Venezuelans would use guns if they had them. They have little to lose.
The British sank the ARA Belgrano in the Falklands War with much loss of life.
I read the book about the USS Phoenix/ARA Belgrano last year. It's a very good book.
So...if there is the Will, they will? (inventory assumed) Should the US offer them the USS Ala-damn-Bama at a Fire? sale price (+ refurbishing)? Much more impressive than re-cycled M-16s. And they don't have to sweat the Falklands anymore...
Brian, If the neocons who run the USA had any sense, they would give the Venezuelan free market/liberty rebels a task force on loan. The good will earned by the USA would give Exxon and Chevron all the oil they wanted.
But that plan didn't work out in Iraq, did it? Cheney and Bush had a heavy hand, a choke hold leash on Iraq.
Persuasion by force isn't persuasion.
I'm getting the sense that the neocons are morphing or homogenizing into a different identity with moderated goals TBA. Either way, not good news for the Freedom folks.
Agreed - Persuasion by Force is tyranny.
It certainly smells like the same playbook to me. Fix the polls enough to make it seem plausible, get busy stuffing the ballot boxes and do whatever you can to keep her from opening her mouth in public, while letting the media do the heavy lifting.
Bingo.
I wonder what, if anything, the RNC and/or Trump Campaign may be doing to forestall the funny business the Dems are certainly planning. Other than the Act Blue caper getting outted, I haven't seen much encouraging news...
I haven't heard of much either. Here in Michigan they made the ballot harvesting legal, vote from home for everyone, no ID's needed at the door, etc. If Dems don't continue to dominate Michigan I'll be surprised.